Free tool

Trading expectancy calculator

A win rate on its own tells you almost nothing — it is the one statistic you can make look good without making any money. Put the average winner and the average loser beside it and the picture inverts surprisingly often: a 35% strategy can comfortably beat a 70% one.

Profit factor and reward-to-risk return an em dash, not a zero, when there are no losses to divide by — a book with no losers has no measurable ratio, and pretending otherwise is how a single winner becomes a “22.03 profit factor”. Nothing here is financial advice.

Your record

Win rate

Share of decisive trades that won. Exclude trades that expired without hitting either level — or include them consistently in both this and the averages.Average winner

Mean return of your winning trades. Percent or R — just keep both fields in the same unit.Average loser

Mean loss, entered as a positive number. This is the field most services never publish.Trades to project over

trades

Expectancy is a per-trade average; it only means anything across a run.

What it is worth

Break-even win rate

At 2.98:1 this is the bar

25.1%

Reward-to-risk

Average winner divided by average loser

2.98 : 1

Profit factor

Gross profit divided by gross loss

1.60

Expectancy per trade

The only figure here that decides whether this is worth running

+0.54%

Expected over 100 trades

Sum of the per-trade average, not compounded

+54.15%

A 35% win rate is profitable at this payoff.

You need 25.1% to break even and you are 9.9 points above it. This is why a win rate on its own tells you nothing: change the average loser and the same win rate flips sign.

A per-trade average is not a promise about any run of trades. Expectancy says nothing about the order results arrive in, and order is what determines whether you survive the drawdown to collect the average. A positive-expectancy system sized too large still busts. Nothing here is financial advice.

Why 35% can beat 70%Our own figures, published live